I know that (insert person: President Trump, President Obama, President Bush, Elon Musk, the Director of the FBI, Director of the CIA, Secretary of War/Defense, Albert Einstein) know more than I do about at least some matters, including matters relevant to at least some of their actions and decisions.
a) Therefore, it follows that I do not know all of the reasons they do at least some of what they do.
b) I do not know how much more they know than I do.[1]
c) I do know the likelihood of me ever knowing everything they know, during my lifetime is about zero percent.
d) I know that Presidents of the United States sometimes take actions that I do not understand.
e) I know, as a citizen, I have a civic duty to form political opinions about elected leaders, and to evaluate their political party to inform how I vote this November, and in future Presidential elections, if I choose to vote.
f) Therefore, it follows (given the premise and logic above) I have less than an ideal or complete data set from which to form my political opinions about President Trump and other former Presidents.
Conclusion: If the above premise is correct, then I do not know, nor can I reasonably expect to know, how much U.S. Presidents know (that I cannot and will not know). Therefore, my ability to stand in judgment of their behavior and decisions is lacking crucial data that would be required to be truly objective/impartial about their decisions.
Implications: It is irrational for people to hate Presidents of the United States. This logic applies to both the current President and former Presidents.
Hypothetical historic fiction example:[2]
In the year 2028, a non-partisan former admiral, Admiral McRaven (U.S. Navy SEAL) was elected President of the United States. Admiral McRaven won the election by a landslide, in no small part because he promised during his campaign that he was focused on the future national and economic security of the United States, rebuilding our alliances, and moving forward as one nation. The Admiral also noted during his campaign that he would not, under any circumstances, seek to prosecute former elected political leaders.
In 2029, the Senate and House, which both went to the Democratic Party, begin holding hearings and launching new investigations into former President Trump and his administration. Their specific allegations are that, while President, he and his family were 1) Inappropriately influenced by Russian President Putin, before the democratic uprising in Russia that ousted him, and 2) that President Trump and others in his administration made illicit financial gains from their elected office, violating the U.S. Constitution.
The investigations take nearly three years to reach any conclusion. After the special prosecutor and Congressional Panel complete their investigation, they discover the following facts:
1. President Trump was informed by a fellow Head of State, during his 2024 election campaign, that the former President Putin had plans to launch a full-scale attack against the United States and its allies no later than the summer of 2025.
2. President Trump quietly convened a group of non-government foreign policy and Russia experts to assess the possibility that this foreign Head of State was telling the truth, and to determine the best way ahead, if the information was verified.
3. The panel of former Senators, Congressman and former and current CEO’s meets for six months and before President Trump takes office, gives him a very short summary of conclusions and recommendations. This Memo states:
a. Dear President Trump,
i. It is with greatest regret that we must inform you, that based on all information we were able to collect from our peers and research, that we can say with certainty, President Vladimir Putin is planning an all-out attack on the United States and our allies sometime during or before the summer of2025.
ii. While we do not know why, how, or what caused this decision, we do believe it to be true, based on the information you received from a foreign head of state, and based on our analysis of past Russian and Soviet military doctrine, and other corporate leaders we were able to speak to.
iii. In addition, and perhaps of greatest concern, we are quite certain that currently elected Senators and Congressman, and the current administration have no idea this is planned. We don’t know why, but we assume it is because there are very, very ultra-rich individuals working for Congress or the United States.
Recommendation: While we cannot know, if Russia will change its mind, we have a very simple recommendation: You and President Putin have historically had a positive bilateral relationship. We recommend you continue this close relationship, and that you immediately reach out to him and stay in close contact with him through your next term as President.
Finally, we note that while we are not military experts, we consider one of the most likely avenues of any potential attack from terrorists, or from Russia, would be through the land and or maritime border we share with Mexico and Latin America. This is simply a matter of logic, based on the massive, poorly protected border, and due to the somewhat lax customs and Visa enforcement in Latin America. Based on this information, we strongly recommend you add immigration reform to the top of your political campaign agenda, and, that if you win the Presidency again, that you and Congress work toward bipartisan immigration reform, and to secure the southern border (both land and maritime).
Upon uncovering this Memo and confirming its veracity, the 2028 House and Senate, cease their investigation, bury the memo, and move on to work on bipartisan immigration reform.
Conclusion: I concede that the probability of the above historic fiction anecdote is purely fiction. However, I do hope that we as Americans will all pause and take a moment to consider, not simply all that we know and care about, but also all that we may not know.
Have a great week Labor Day and thank you for reading.
Sincerely,
Carson
[1] While not strictly necessary for this premise and my conclusions, I also do not know, who else has the different information that these highly influential people have. In other words, if I am honest, my epistemic position is worse than simply “not knowing” what they know, I also don’t know who else could fairly and objectively evaluate their decisions.
[2] Note, I learned about this form of writing from Linked-In, where I follow a company called “Useful Fiction.” Their website is available here: https://useful-fiction.com/